Spain is moving stealthily but very quickly towards over the 50 million population barrier. Last week, the Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) reported that the population residing in the country is now close to 49 million. And the national statistical office’s scenario is that the 50 million mark will be crossed sometime in 2026. That is, in little more than a year. The driving force behind this demographic boom is just one: the arrival of migrants to Spain in the heat of the good times being experienced by the Spanish economy.
The boom The demographic boom involves a challenge from different areas such as housing or social integration of newcomers. But at the same time it masks what is probably the greatest challenge that Spain will have to face in the coming years: an aging native population, in which not enough children are being born (or will be born) to replace the generations that will be disappearing.
The population is growing at a rate not seen since the real estate bubble at the beginning of the century. Just look at the most recent data. In just under three years (from January 1, 2022 to October 1, 2024), Spain has gained 1.46 million inhabitants. To put this figure in context, we are talking about a population gain that doubles that recorded between 2011 and 2021.years of crisis in which the arrival of foreigners slowed to a halt.
“I am not surprised that we are going to reach 50 million, but it is not going to be because our population is producing to what the population itself would like. In Spain there is a lot of frustrated fertility: we have almost one child less than we would like.”Héctor Cebolla, a researcher specializing in demography at the CSIC, explains in a telephone conversation with 20minutos.
In fact, statistics show that the indigenous population has entered a decline from which it seems it will never emerge. The number of people born in Spain has been declining for ten years in a row. And future forecasts indicate that, not only will it continue to do so, but it will do so faster and faster.
Will there be a roof over our heads and services for everyone?
Population growth brings with it a number of challenges in different areas. Perhaps the most visible is that of access to housingIs there room for 50 million people in Spain? Answers the question María Jesús Fernández, senior economist at Funcas, the prestigious think tank of the former savings banks. “Obviously, yes, there is, but people don’t go to live in the middle of nowhere, they go to the big cities, and that’s where housing is needed.“he reflects, in a conversation with this newspaper.
Demographic projections suggest that the population will grow more in large cities. It is estimated that, of the one million inhabitants short of 50, around a third will live in the provinces of Madrid and Barcelona. If we add Alicante and Valencia to these two, the result is that half of the increase in inhabitants will be distributed in only four provinces.
The housing problem is the one that has the worst solution. In big cities, there are more and more problems to find an apartment. And the rate at which houses are being built in Spain does not match, not by a long shot, the forecasts for household creation. The Bank of Spain estimates that about 100,000 homes are being built per year, a figure far short of the 2.8 million homes expected to be formed over the next ten years. “There is a deficit in housing creation that is clearly at the root of the fact that rental and housing prices are so high“explains María Jesús Fernández, from Funcas.
In 2002, only 6% of the resident population was foreign. By the time the 50 million mark is reached, this percentage will be 22%.
Another of the challenges posed by population growth is whether public services are prepared for it. “If there are more people living, there will be more needs for transportation, roads, healthcare…”, reflects Fernandez, who believes that there will be enough capacity. “Foreigners working generate GDP and taxes and should generate enough resources to expand these services,” he adds. “The question is whether there are enough personnel in services such as healthcare, whether there are enough doctors and nurses to cover the supply,” he adds.
Beyond the economic derivative, there is also a social one. And that is the challenge of integrating the hundreds of thousands of people from abroad who continue to arrive in Spain every year. In addition, in a climate of recent rejection of immigrationas suggested by the latest CIS surveys. The weight of the foreign population has grown a lot so far this century. and has meant a social transformation of the first order. In 2002, only 6% of the resident population was foreign. By the time Spain reaches 50 million, this percentage will have risen to 22% and could reach 39% in the 1970s if trends continue.
In this section, Spain has a big advantage over other Western countries. The vast majority of people settling in the country come from Latin America.so the cultural barrier is much smaller. “Spain is an example of successful immigration management. Migrants have been incorporated without too much noise. Many of them have done so in the least favored social segment, but they are very similar to Spaniards who have their educational profile,” says Cebolla.
The long demographic winter
The data and the specialists consulted suggest that the Spain of 50 million inhabitants will be quite similar to today’s Spain. However, it will also look a little more like the Spain of the future. An increasingly aging country, where the pressure on public spending will grow unstoppably in the coming decades. The short-term challenges pale when you look at the predictions of the future.
Again, the figures are devastating. In Spain there are currently 34.5 people over 65 years of age for every 100 of working age. In 20 years’ time there will be almost 59. As a result, spending on public pensions, healthcare and long-term care will grow considerably in the coming years. The European Commission estimates that age-related expenditure will rise from 24.4% of GDP today to 28.2% in just 20 years’ time.. It may not seem much, but if we translate these percentages into 2023 euros, we are talking about an increase of almost 57 billion. A figure similar to the country’s entire education expenditure.
With this background, unless an unexpected element arises, the viability of the welfare state itself depends on sufficient migrants arriving in the coming years. “Our growth is sustained by the idea that migrants are arriving and will continue to arrive. However, it is to be expected that this will not be the case for long, since several of the migrant-sending countries have increasingly lower fertility rates,” explains Cebolla, from the CSIC.
In Spain there are currently 34.5 people over 65 years of age for every 100 of working age. In 20 years’ time there will be 59
“The economic effect of aging is something very, very relevant,” explains María Jesús Fernández, from Funcas. “Aging is going to change the economy and it has consequences that are very difficult to anticipate,” she continues. Large-scale changes in consumption and savings patterns or labor shortages are just some of them.